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Pre-Game Player Probabilities#

Availability Note

Probability bins as described below are currently only available for MLB and NHL player props.

In the following example you will retrieve probabilities for an MLB player's upcoming game.

Related APIS

Method Description Availability
GET /{sport}/v2/performances/{uuid} MLB NHL
GET /{sport}/v2/{event_uuid}/performances MLB NHL

Start by querying for a specific player's performance in an event. See querying player props for more information about querying for pre-game performance results. For example: 

GET https://api.quarter4.io/baseball/v2/performances/5828e11f-4d05-3d98-a007-c800473b2337

The result includes all player performance results for the player in the event. For example: ;

Player Performance Result with Probability Bins

{
"data": {
    "id": "\/baseball\/v2\/performances\/5828e11f-4d05-3d98-a007-c800473b2337",
    "type": "Performance",
    "attributes": {
    "uuid": "5828e11f-4d05-3d98-a007-c800473b2337",
    "statisticsPitchingOverallGamesWin": null,
    "statisticsPitchingOverallOutsKtotal": 1,
    "statisticsPitchingOverallOnbaseH": 0,
    "statisticsPitchingOverallOnbaseBb": 0,
    "statisticsPitchingOverallIp1": 3,
    "statisticsPitchingOverallIp2": 1,
    "statisticsPitchingOverallOnbaseIbb": null,
    "statisticsPitchingOverallGamesHold": null,
    "statisticsPitchingOverallGamesSave": null,
    "statisticsPitchingOverallGamesBlownSave": null,
    "statisticsHittingOverallAb": null,
    "statisticsHittingOverallOnbaseH": null,
    "statisticsHittingOverallOnbaseS": null,
    "statisticsHittingOverallOnbaseD": null,
    "statisticsHittingOverallOnbaseT": null,
    "statisticsHittingOverallOnbaseHr": null,
    "statisticsHittingOverallOnbaseTb": null,
    "statisticsHittingOverallRbi": null,
    "statisticsHittingOverallRunsTotal": null,
    "statisticsHittingOverallStealStolen": null,
    "statisticsHittingOverallStealCaught": null,
    "statisticsHittingOverallAvg": null,
    "statisticsPitchingOverallRunsEarned": 0,
    "statisticsHittingOverallAbBins": [],
    "statisticsHittingOverallOnbaseDBins": [],
    "statisticsHittingOverallOnbaseHBins": [],
    "statisticsHittingOverallOnbaseHrBins": [],
    "statisticsHittingOverallOnbaseSBins": [],
    "statisticsHittingOverallOnbaseTBins": [],
    "statisticsHittingOverallOnbaseTbBins": [],
    "statisticsHittingOverallRbiBins": [],
    "statisticsHittingOverallRunsTotalBins": [],
    "statisticsHittingOverallStealCaughtBins": [],
    "statisticsHittingOverallStealStolenBins": [],
    "statisticsPitchingOverallIp1Bins": [
        0.04735892439114093,
        0.14444471939297981,
        0.22027819707429425,
        0.2239495003588659,
        0.17076149402363516,
        0.10416451135441747,
        0.052950293271828895,
        0.02307119921129687,
        0.008795894699306927,
        0.0029808309814317946,
        0.0009091534493366962,
        0.0002520834564069932,
        6.407121183677756e-5,
        1.5032092007859356e-5,
        3.2748486159979177e-6,
        6.658858852529095e-7,
        1.269344968763358e-7,
        2.2773542086636732e-8,
        3.8588501869023455e-9,
        6.194470036869543e-10,
        9.446566806226057e-11,
        1.3720013694756895e-11,
        1.9020928076821984e-12,
        2.5223404623611757e-13,
        3.2054743375840173e-14,
        3.910678691852507e-15,
        4.587526926980834e-16,
        5.182206343441329e-17,
        5.644903338391395e-18,
        5.936881097273767e-19,
        6.03582911556167e-20,
        5.938477033052572e-21,
        5.6601109221282795e-22
    ],
    "statisticsPitchingOverallOnbaseBbBins": [
        0.5488116360940265,
        0.3292869816564159,
        0.09878609449692473,
        0.019757218899384952,
        0.0029635828349077417,
        0.00035562994018892936,
        3.556299401889289e-5,
        3.0482566301908193e-6,
        2.2861924726431146e-7,
        1.5241283150954117e-8
    ],
    "statisticsPitchingOverallOnbaseHBins": [
        0.42741493194872665,
        0.3633026921564177,
        0.15440364416647748,
        0.04374769918050195,
        0.009296386075856665,
        0.0015803856328956338,
        0.00022388796466021445,
        2.7186395708740366e-5,
        2.8885545440536625e-6,
        2.728079291606239e-7,
        2.3188673978652962e-8,
        1.7918520801686405e-9,
        1.2692285567861227e-10,
        8.298802102063113e-12,
        5.038558419109727e-13
    ],
    "statisticsPitchingOverallOutsKtotalBins": [
        0.20189651799465538,
        0.32303442879144867,
        0.25842754303315896,
        0.13782802295101812,
        0.05513120918040725,
        0.017641986937730322,
        0.004704529850061418,
        0.001075321108585467,
        0.00021506422171709355,
        3.82336394163722e-5,
        6.117382306619551e-6,
        8.898010627810249e-7,
        1.1864014170413705e-7,
        1.4601863594355298e-8,
        1.668784410783455e-9,
        1.7800367048356895e-10,
        1.7800367048356873e-11,
        1.6753286633747648e-12
    ],
    "statisticsPitchingOverallRunsEarnedBins": [
        0.5488116360940265,
        0.3292869816564159,
        0.09878609449692473,
        0.019757218899384952,
        0.0029635828349077417,
        0.00035562994018892936,
        3.556299401889289e-5,
        3.0482566301908193e-6,
        2.2861924726431146e-7,
        1.5241283150954117e-8,
        9.144769890572446e-10,
        4.988056303948607e-11
    ],
    "statisticsHittingOverallAb1PlusProb": null,
    "statisticsHittingOverallOnbaseD1PlusProb": null,
    "statisticsHittingOverallOnbaseH1PlusProb": null,
    "statisticsHittingOverallOnbaseHr1PlusProb": null,
    "statisticsHittingOverallOnbaseS1PlusProb": null,
    "statisticsHittingOverallOnbaseT1PlusProb": null,
    "statisticsHittingOverallOnbaseTb1PlusProb": null,
    "statisticsHittingOverallRbi1PlusProb": null,
    "statisticsHittingOverallRunsTotal1PlusProb": null,
    "statisticsHittingOverallStealCaught1PlusProb": null,
    "statisticsHittingOverallStealStolen1PlusProb": null,
    "statisticsPitchingOverallIp11PlusProb": 0.953,
    "statisticsPitchingOverallOnbaseBb1PlusProb": 0.451,
    "statisticsPitchingOverallOnbaseH1PlusProb": 0.573,
    "statisticsPitchingOverallOutsKtotal1PlusProb": 0.798,
    "statisticsPitchingOverallRunsEarned1PlusProb": 0.451,
    "updatedAt": "2023-04-23T19:48:15+00:00"
    },
    "relationships": {
    "player": {
        "data": {
        "type": "Player",
        "id": "\/baseball\/v2\/players\/c8425ad4-473d-4ea3-b80e-a0eb2b79bbb0"
        }
    },
    "event": {
        "data": {
        "type": "Event",
        "id": "\/baseball\/v2\/events\/72df9a96-0a50-4e79-907b-ca376d5e9b77"
        }
    },
    "team": {
        "data": {
        "type": "Team",
        "id": "\/baseball\/v2\/teams\/be0dde69-c159-4914-9098-0609cb131540"
        }
    }
    }
}
}

The resulting performance entity gives you various player related pre-game predictions and probabilities depending on the league and/or sport.

For leagues that support probabilities such as MLB above, you'll notice Bins attributes such as statisticsPitchingOverallRunsEarnedBins:

Probability Bin

"statisticsPitchingOverallRunsEarnedBins": [
    0.5488116360940265,
    0.3292869816564159,
    0.09878609449692473,
    0.019757218899384952,
    0.0029635828349077417,
    0.00035562994018892936,
    3.556299401889289e-5,
    3.0482566301908193e-6,
    2.2861924726431146e-7,
    1.5241283150954117e-8,
    9.144769890572446e-10,
    4.988056303948607e-11
],

Each index of the JSON arays represent the probability that a certain number will be achieved.

JSON arrays start at index 0 so the first item in the array represents no results.

The example here starts with:

  • index 0 or "no runs earned" at 55% calculated and rounded from 0.5488116360940265 x 100,
  • index 1 or "1 run earned" at 33% calculated and rounded from 0.3292869816564159 x 100,
  • index 2 or "2 runs earned" at 10% calculated and rounded from 0.09878609449692473 x 100,
  • adn up to index 11 at 0.0000000005% calculated and rounded from 4.988056303948607e-11 x 100.

Note

Very small values will use Scientific Notation such as 4.9e-11 to represent the number.

You can use these numbers to create a probability graph for the prop:

Select a matchup

Graph of Pitcher's Overall Earned Runs

Additionally, attributes ending with 1PlusProb are included for each bin which represents the sum of all probabilities where the result is greater than 1. For example:

"statisticsPitchingOverallRunsEarned1PlusProb": 0.451

indicating the probability of 1 or more runs earned to be 45% for this player in this game.